Y-Vertex Sentiment - Documentation

Actionable Portfolio Intelligence

The Y-Vertex Sentiment engine (formerly referred to as Y-Radar) delivers corporate conviction and institutional intelligence directly into the Y-Vertex Matrix Feed on your Y-Active dashboard. Instead of checking multiple financial news portals and regulatory sites, the Y-Vertex Matrix Feed aggregates, filters, and monitors material disclosures, analyst updates, and insider activity specifically for the active holdings in your Y-Active.

The feed continuously monitors eight core categories of corporate intelligence:

Political Trade Disclosures: Stock purchases and sales made by members of the US Senate and House of Representatives.
Corporate Insider Activity: Form 4 filings submitted by company officers, directors, and major block holders.
Analyst Ratings Revisions: Rating upgrades, downgrades, and reiterations from major investment firms.
SEC Filings: Scheduled annual reports (10-K), quarterly reports (10-Q), and material events (8-K).
Institutional 13F Positionings: Quarterly share allocations and option hedge ratios filed by major investment managers.
Corporate Earnings Releases: Chronological quarterly earnings releases, EPS and revenue surprises (beats vs. misses), and guidance updates.
Mergers & Acquisitions: Material corporate mergers, buyouts, and transaction agreements.
Mutual Fund & ETF Disclosures: Monthly/quarterly N-PORT disclosures highlighting major fund position drift.

The Y-Vertex Sentiment Index

Embedded directly at the top of the Y-Vertex Matrix Feed is the Y-Vertex Sentiment Index—an ultra-compact single-bar conviction score (0-100) reflecting the real-time density, intent, and capital exposure of earnings surprises, analyst updates, options put-call hedging ratios, and insider activities.

Unlike naive news counters, the Y-Vertex Sentiment Index weights events by capital risk, exponential time decay, executive conviction, and multi-source catalyst confluence.

How the Index is Calculated

The engine evaluates signals over a 90-day horizon using four continuous quantitative dimensions:

1. Exponential Time Decay (7-Day Half-Life)

Instead of a rigid time boundary, signal power decays exponentially every day:

$$ W_{\text{time}} = \exp\left(-\ln(2) \times \frac{\text{Age in Days}}{7.0}\right) $$

A high-impact signal today operates at full power ($3.0$). After 7 days, its weight decays to $1.5$; after 14 days, to $0.75$. Fresh catalysts dominate the score while old events fade smoothly without sudden score jumps.

2. Y-Active Capital Exposure Weighting

Signals are weighted by the asset’s allocation relative to the average holding size:

$$ W_{\text{capital}} = \frac{\text{Asset Current Value / Total Y-Active Value}}{\text{Average Holding Weight}} $$

A signal on a $40%$ core position carries proportional conviction over a $0.5%$ micro-position.

3. Conviction Hierarchy & Intent Parsing

C-Suite Open-Market Buys (CEO, CFO, President): $+50%$ conviction bump ($1.5\text{x}$ multiplier).
Institutional “Whale” Accumulation: $+25%$ conviction bump ($1.25\text{x}$ multiplier).
Automated 10b5-1 / Tax Option Sales: Suppressed down to a $0.40\text{x}$ multiplier to filter non-informational routine selling.

4. 72-Hour Multi-Source Confluence Acceleration

When distinct signal types (e.g. CEO Buy + Analyst Upgrade + Earnings Beat) cluster on the same ticker within a 72-hour window, the engine applies a compounding catalyst multiplier:

$$ W_{\text{conf}} = 1.0 + 0.25 \times (\text{Unique Source Types} - 1) \quad (\text{capped at } 1.5\text{x}) $$

5. Laplace Smoothing Inertia ($K = 2.0$)

To prevent low-sample news volatility from pegging the score to 100 or 0, a baseline inertia constant ($K = 2.0$) is added to the denominator:

$$ \text{Y-Vertex Sentiment Score} = 50 + 50 \times \left( \frac{\sum W_{\text{bullish}} - \sum W_{\text{bearish}}}{\sum W_{\text{bullish}} + \sum W_{\text{bearish}} + 2.0} \right) $$

Score $\ge 60$ (Bullish): Net positive catalyst accumulation across core holdings (Emerald).
Score between 41 and 59 (Neutral): Balanced market sentiment or low-impact news flow (Gray).
Score $\le 40$ (Bearish): Net negative corporate or insider activity (Rose).